From butterfly wings to cyber risks: The link between chaos theory and information security 

In our digitally connected world, a weak password, a careless click on a phishing link or an out-of-date system can set off a chain reaction with major consequences. Just like the butterfly effect, where the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil is said to trigger a tornado in Texas. 

In this article, we explore the impact of the remote effect on information security and how we can minimize risks without being unnecessarily costly or inefficient for the business. 

The Butterfly Effect and information security 

The butterfly effect, discovered by Edward Lorenz in the 1960s, is a central idea in chaos theory. It is about how small changes in weather models can lead to dramatically different forecasts. The metaphor of a butterfly's wingbeat triggering a tornado symbolizes how small, initial changes can have big consequences. 

Just like weather models, information security is a complex system involving many factors, such as firewalls, antivirus software, user behavior and even third-party security policies. A small vulnerability, such as a misconfigured firewall, an out-of-date system or human error, can set off a chain reaction of serious incidents. A recent example of this is the Okta breach incident in October 2023, where stolen credentials for the company's support management system triggered a chain reaction that affected third parties such as 1Password and Cloudflare. The result was damaged trust and extensive financial losses. 

Another example is the failed CrowdStrike system update in August 2024, which reportedly affected 8.5 million computers globally. The cloud-based nature of the platform amplified the impact and showed how dependencies on centralized systems can lead to catastrophic failures across multiple industries. The NIS Directive also builds on the realization that small vulnerabilities in critical services can have far-reaching consequences for society as a whole. Therefore, the Directive requires Member States and organizations to proactively identify and manage risks that may affect security across the EU. 

Preventive actions 

Understanding how a small vulnerability in a complex system can lead to unpredictable consequences is crucial to minimize risks. This requires the implementation of appropriate measures that can manage risks. 

Few people would question that a low level of security can lead to major consequences, but a very high level of security is not necessarily efficient or effective. Excessive security measures or complex procedures are not only costly for the organization, but if they are not tailored to the end user, they can also lead to inefficiencies and phenomena such as security fatigue - a phenomenon where employees become overwhelmed by complex requirements and start ignoring security procedures. 

In order to minimize the negative consequences of the remote effect in information security and identify the security measures best suited to our business, the following actions should be considered: 

• Risk-based security strategy 
  By assessing risks, organizations can prioritize them according to their severity and define a risk treatment plan. Depending on the level of risk and organizational circumstances, appropriate security measures can be selected. For example, to reduce the risk of weak passwords, one can choose to implement a complex password policy or alternatively Single Sign-On (SSO) or adaptive authentication, which can also reduce the burden on employees. 
• Education and awareness 
  Information security is not just the job of the IT department or security specialists. If an employee falls victim to a sophisticated AI-generated scam call or a phishing attack, the organization can face serious consequences. Regular training and awareness-raising, which integrates security practices into daily work, helps employees understand and comply with security requirements without feeling overwhelmed. Engaging programs, such as gamification, can also make learning more effective. 
• Smart solutions 
  It is difficult to protect against threats from new technologies, such as AI-driven intrusions, with legacy technologies. Smart solutions, such as AI, not only streamline security but also reduce the risk of human error. Examples include log monitoring, Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) and User and Entity Behavior Analytics (UEBA), which can reduce workloads while increasing both efficiency and security. 
• Feedback and continuous improvement  
  Information security measures should be continuously evaluated and adapted to new vulnerabilities, threats and business needs. By gathering feedback from stakeholders, organizations can adapt their strategies and find opportunities for continuous improvement to balance security and efficiency. In other words, the appropriateness and adequacy of security measures should be ensured regularly. 

In information security, there are no insignificant risks - any weakness can have far-reaching consequences. Therefore, we need to carefully identify, assess and manage risks before consciously accepting them. At the same time, we need to find the optimal balance between security and efficiency. 

Does your business want help to avoid the major consequences of the butterfly effect? At Omegapoint, we can help you with risk analysis, safety training and solution proposals. Read more about our offers here: https://omegapoint.se/vrt-erbjudande